Charlie Rose - Home

Charlie Rose - Home

I found very interesting the interview at Charlie Rose site to Niall Ferguson.
Mr Ferguson, author of amongst others The Ascent of Money in his style, predicts the disaster to the US economy given the level of debt that it's accumulating, the risk of default, the raise in the interest rates as you loose credibility,...

Mr Rose pushes him with the inner feeling that America cannot default, that all economists working now in the recovery of the economy are not talking about that...

What I find wonderful is this debate is the following: the bigger the picture or the longer the period you consider in your analysis, the more gloomy, dark and risky the picture becomes. When historians like Ferguson look into the picture, they see a long trajectory that almost inevitably goes in very bad direction. It has to do with the dynamics of empires, the decadence of the system...

On the other hand, when you apply a shorter view things look much better. We're coming out of the woods with all the money pumped intot he system, bailouts,etc. Economy seems like is starting to grow again, people get more optimistic...

It would be interesting to apply a kind of technical analysis of the type that is used in financial markets, to country economies. What would the picture be for the US economy?

The Tech Sector Trumpets Signs of a Real Rebound - NYTimes.com

The Tech Sector Trumpets Signs of a Real Rebound - NYTimes.com

Is technology going to lead the recovery? To answer that question we need to understand what is guiding the investment in technology, particularly IT in the corporate world these days. And the key factor of that spending is cost savings.

What companies are doing these days is invest in IT primarily to reduce costs, not only IT costs, but total operational costs. The impact of these measures is that the business improvements achieved via IT are sticky. That is, they will not go back to normal when the crisis is over. In other words, jobs cut and improved business processes will stay.

IT is going through the extended part of its development cycle: after the first 20 years of development, we had a big bubble burst. Now we are in the phase in which IT is penetrating all sectors of activity, all industries and although there may not be radical innovations, the cumulative improvements that it brings produce massive economic results.

The other fundamental trend that is happening in modern capitalism is that IT is becoming central to corporate strategy. It has evolved from being a tool to becoming a crucial component of the way business is done. From the operations of telecom operators, to banks, to new healthcare, including all e-government initiatives, technology is now at the heart of how products and services are delivered today. That's the other reason why IT is showing signs of strength.