Charlie Rose - Home

Charlie Rose - Home

I found very interesting the interview at Charlie Rose site to Niall Ferguson.
Mr Ferguson, author of amongst others The Ascent of Money in his style, predicts the disaster to the US economy given the level of debt that it's accumulating, the risk of default, the raise in the interest rates as you loose credibility,...

Mr Rose pushes him with the inner feeling that America cannot default, that all economists working now in the recovery of the economy are not talking about that...

What I find wonderful is this debate is the following: the bigger the picture or the longer the period you consider in your analysis, the more gloomy, dark and risky the picture becomes. When historians like Ferguson look into the picture, they see a long trajectory that almost inevitably goes in very bad direction. It has to do with the dynamics of empires, the decadence of the system...

On the other hand, when you apply a shorter view things look much better. We're coming out of the woods with all the money pumped intot he system, bailouts,etc. Economy seems like is starting to grow again, people get more optimistic...

It would be interesting to apply a kind of technical analysis of the type that is used in financial markets, to country economies. What would the picture be for the US economy?