Monday, February 09, 2009

FT.com / Weekend / Reportage - A more humane way to measure progress

FT.com / Weekend / Reportage - A more humane way to measure progress

In this interesting article about initiatives to measure the progress of countries beyond GDP, I found a fantastic quote that perfectly describes one of the most important issues we are facing today. The author quotes David Hand who speaks of the "awesome power" of statistics and says data will become "the corner stone of modern civilisation", stripping away layers of mystification and obscurity to reveal the truth and improve understanding. I subscribe to this point of view.

I frequently find myself in discussions about a topic, say the price of oil for example, where everybody has an opinion, normally based on other's opinions, but where you feel an important absence: the facts behind the argument. For example, you could read pages of articles in the news about the reasons why the price of oil would go beyond $200 a barrel. The reasons would be multiple: demand from China, futures markets, limited supply,...but when you scratch the surface, the fact is that nobody seem to have the facts. How much does China represent in the global demand for oil? how much of the price of oil is due to real market demand and how much is based on speculation? You can apply the same logic to everything, from the number of gay marriages (how many?) to the board discussions in any corporation nowadays (how much do you say that this market represents?). We need a much more factual world to eliminate dangeorus half-truths and wrong assumptions.

This is why I liked the Knowledge Concierge at the World Economic Forum web site this year. Through facts into the discussion and you immediately reduce misunderstanding and ambiguity. Debates based on the solid foundations of facts are much more objective and conclusions can be much more engaging.

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